The jihadist conflict in Cabo Delgado, northern Mozambique, shows no sign of abating. The region has long been a key economic corridor for illicit flows that traverse the East African coast, including drug trafficking (chiefly of heroin and, more recently, methamphetamine and cocaine), illicitly exported timber, smuggled gems and gold. Contrary to some expectations, research by The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) has consistently found since early 2021 that al-Shabaab – as the insurgents are known locally – has not been taking control of illicit economies in the region. However, illicit economies were a factor in the deep-seated local grievances that led to the conflict, grievances that government efforts to stem the violence have, as yet, done little to address.
